Risk disclosure

Prediction-market trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. UnusualBets is a tool, not an advisor. Read this before you arm a bracket.

1. You can lose 100% of any position

A YES share at $0.42 settles at $0.00 if the event doesn’t happen. A binary market collapses to one side at resolution. Stop losses don’t always fill — if the market jumps your trigger, the next available bid may be far below your SL price. Size accordingly.

2. TP / SL is best-effort, not guaranteed

Our worker fires market orders against Polymarket’s CLOB. Fills depend on the book depth at the moment of the trigger, Polymarket’s availability, and the on-chain settlement pipeline. Specifically:

• A trigger may fire with no liquidity within an acceptable slippage band — in which case we record the attempt and try again until either the leg fills or the bracket is superseded.
• A market may resolve under the bracketbefore we can fill. We’ll tell you exactly when this happens via a postmortem Telegram message.
• Polymarket may have maintenance windows during which orders cannot be placed. We retry when service returns but cannot recover the missed minutes.

3. Slippage is real and uncapped on thin books

Polymarket books on long-tail markets can be very thin. A market-order TP can fill 5% below your trigger price if the book is sparse. We display the implied slippage at the moment of bracket creation; review it before arming.

4. Resolution risk

Polymarket markets resolve based on real-world events. There is a non-zero probability of a disputed resolution, a delayed resolution, or an unexpected interpretation of the resolution criteria. We have no control over how markets resolve.

5. Custodial & counterparty risk

Although UnusualBetsitself is non-custodial, your funds sit inside Polymarket’s smart contracts. Smart-contract risk applies. Polymarket counterparty risk applies. Your wallet signer (Privy or otherwise) is itself a third-party service with its own risk profile.

6. Regional eligibility

Prediction-market trading is restricted or prohibited in some jurisdictions. We follow Polymarket’s regional restrictions — see their Terms of Use. It is your responsibility to ensure your use is legal where you live.

7. Not financial advice

Whale-flow signals, market discovery, alerts, and any commentary on the blog are informational only. None of it is financial, legal, or tax advice. Talk to your own advisors before sizing up.

8. Trade what you can lose

The single best risk-management rule on prediction markets: only commit capital you would be okay never seeing again. TP/SL helps you cap the downside on a single trade; it does not change the fundamentals of the asset.